The level of employment of the population is a very important indicator of the country’s socio-economic development, and if before the crisis it was quite high, today experts are very alarmed that the number of unemployed Russians is constantly increasing. Based on the fact 2017 can be expected , economists will be able to make a forecast about the near future of the country and the speed of recovery of the economic system, so information on this issue is considered especially relevant today.
What do experts expect?
The official forecast of experts indicates that unemployment will increase, because the crisis is not over yet and the government is reorganizing (optimizing) the budgetary sector, during which Russians are losing their jobs. Today it is planned that the unemployment rate among the population will be 7%, and let this figure seems large, if we compare it with the level of 2014, then the forecast can be considered quite acceptable.
Today there is no exact information regarding what exactly the unemployment rate will be in Russia in 2017, because it is difficult to guess exactly how many people will lose their jobs, because optimization is of a “wave” nature, which means the number of people who have lost their jobs will increase gradually. The authorities, however, advise not to panic, because they will pay everyone financial benefits, therefore, at first no one will be left without help (although, frankly speaking, the amount of the benefit is incredibly small, so it will be very difficult to live on it). However, economists warn the authorities that such events will negatively affect the country's economy, because statistics experts say that out of 600 thousand unemployed, only 10% will be able to find work, therefore, the remaining 540 thousand people will live on state social security, and this will hinder a faster restoration of the normal functioning of the economic system.
Official government forecast
It must be said that Rosstat speaks quite pessimistically about the unemployment rate in Russia in 2017, because according to the experts who work in this structure, in the near future the number of people without work will increase from 7% to approximately 10%. It is not yet entirely clear which sector will be left without a sufficient number of employees, but experts suggest that people in the manufacturing sector, service sector and business environment will be the first to suffer. The latter will suffer the most, because the authorities are increasing tax payments, and accordingly, entrepreneurs (especially) will suffer greatly. It is worth saying that the unemployment rate will be lowest in the central regions of the country (in St. Petersburg and Moscow it is almost invisible), but on the periphery of the country the situation looks more sad.
IN modern times One can only rejoice at the fact that the level of youth unemployment can be considered relatively low, because it is easier for young people to find work than for older Russians. It must be said that young people naturally strive to learn (lawyers, doctors, employees of the oil and gas industry) and are looking for work in these areas, but the good news is that no one is on government support, everyone is trying to find their “place in life” .
Summarizing all of the above, it must be said that although the forecast for the unemployment rate in Russia for 2017 cannot be called too positive, you shouldn’t worry too much about this, because you can always find a job, especially if you want to look for it and earn money. Only the Labor Exchange, where every unemployed person must register, offers Russians a lot of vacancies. Of course, some will not immediately find a suitable position for themselves, but losing a job is not always a tragedy, it can be a chance to literally start life anew, and this chance is worth taking advantage of.
The theoretical essence of the labor market and the problem of unemployment. The essence of unemployment, its types, causes and consequences. Forms of unemployment. Dynamics of unemployment in the Russian Federation from 2000 to 2016. Analysis of the state of unemployment in Russia for 2016-2017. Unemployment rate by region of Russia in 2016-2017. The fight against unemployment in Russia: directions, methods, results. Measures to combat unemployment taken by the Government of the Russian Federation in 2016-2017.
Coursework on the topic:
Unemployment in Russia in 2016-2017
INTRODUCTION
Chapter 1. The theoretical essence of the labor market and the problem of unemployment.
1.1 Labor market, its concept and essence
Chapter 2. Analysis of the state of unemployment in Russia for 2016-2017.
2.1 Analysis of unemployment in Russia in 2000-2016
Conclusion
INTRODUCTION
The economic well-being of any country depends on the rate of economic growth. There are several determinants or factors of economic development. For example, such as industrialization, agriculture, population, employment, etc. One of the main indicators of economic growth is the level of employment, since its decline has adverse effect for the entire economy. Whenever observed high level employment, production improves, thereby raising living standards.
The country's high unemployment rate leads to social and economic problems in society as a whole. Economic problems lead to decreased production of goods and services, decreased income distribution, loss of tax revenue, decreased GDP level etc.
Unemployment is the most serious problem facing governments around the world. Politicians and scientists are trying their best to solve this problem. The worsening employment problem threatens a deterioration in the economic situation, and subsequently, a social revolution.
The problems of employment and unemployment are given the most serious attention in all countries of the world. Both developing and developed countries are looking for ways to solve the difficult problem of creating decent and permanent jobs, since decent employment is the only way to get rid of poverty and a prerequisite for sustainable economic development of the country. It is no coincidence that a new one has appeared among the goals set out in the Millennium Development Goals - ensuring full and productive employment and decent work for all.
IN modern Russia unemployment remains at a satisfactory level. Although in the 90s there were also catastrophic indicators. Since the beginning of the 2000s, the authorities have managed to curb unemployment, bringing it to a level adequate to the economic development of the country.
However, the problem of employment does not lose its relevance. Especially considering the demographic situation in Russia, where the percentage of the population of retirement age is critically high.
The continuation of international sanctions and vagueness do not contribute to the increase in the number of jobs. And the departure of a number of large foreign companies from the domestic market further aggravates the situation.
To achieve this goal, the following will be resolved: tasks:
1. Consider the labor market, its concept and essence.
2. Determine the essence of unemployment, its types, causes and consequences.
3. Analyze the dynamics of unemployment in Russia in 2000-2016.
4. Assess the state of unemployment in Russia in 2017.
5. Formulate the directions, methods and results of the fight against unemployment in Russia at the present stage.
Work structure, determined by its purpose and objectives, consists of an introduction, 2 chapters and 5 paragraphs, a conclusion and a list of references.
Chapter 1. The theoretical essence of the labor market and the problem of unemployment
1.1 Labor market, its concept and essence
Before studying unemployment, it is important to understand where exactly this phenomenon takes place and what are the features of its functioning. Unemployment arises and develops in a specific market - the labor market.
The labor market is a complex of economic relationships regarding the turnover of a specific product - labor. This is a market in which ability to work is exchanged for appropriate payment.
The labor market determines demand, supply and price for labor and, consequently, for labor services. The subjects of economic relations in the labor market are, on the one hand, entrepreneurs - large monopolies, medium and small businessmen, the state, and on the other - individual workers or their associations (trade unions). Prices prevailing in the labor market represent wage rates, which are the monetary form of the cost of labor. The labor market situation is characterized by the relationship between available jobs and unemployed and able-bodied citizens looking for work. Together with other types of market, the labor market forms an economic system of the market mechanism. Moreover, the labor market occupies a central position in the structure of the market economy and acts as a kind of foundation on which the entire market system is built, because without the labor market the optimal functioning and development of a market economy is practically unthinkable.
In macroeconomics, it is customary to distinguish between national and global labor markets. The national one functions in the economy of the country as a whole, the global one - on a global economic scale and exists in the form of international labor migration.
The labor market, being one of the main components of the general economic market mechanism, implements a specific function of distribution and redistribution of labor resources across areas, industries, regions, professions, specialties, qualifications in accordance with the law of supply and demand. The labor market, according to a number of principles of the mechanism of its work, is a market of a specific kind, which has many significant differences from other commodity markets. The regulators of the labor market are factors not only of macro and microeconomics, but also socio-economic and socio-psychological aspects, which are not always directly correlated with wages.
The dynamics of the labor market are characterized by a number of features, the main ones being the following:
1. Labor productivity of workers, unlike other factors of production, can change significantly based on how optimally the labor process is organized, as well as on the level of personal motivation of a person at work.
2. Work, as a rule, is carried out by groups of workers who independently set production standards for them.
3. In the labor market, the owner of the means of production and the owner of the labor force intersect, between whom bargaining takes place regarding a specific type of labor (the work of a mechanic, a cook, a builder, an engineer, etc.), as well as the conditions and duration of use of the worker.
4. A typical feature of the labor market is the constant excess of labor supply over demand for it.
5. In the labor market, there is competition between workers for available jobs. In this struggle, the winner is the one who can provide the employer with the greatest profit through his labor.
Labor force:
A) a person’s ability to work;
B) a complex of physical and mental skills of a person that are used by him in the labor process;
C) the total number of workers in the country;
D) part of the population, including employed, self-employed and job seekers (unemployed).
In reality, the labor force functions, develops and enriches itself in the process of a person’s labor activity. The socio-economic conditions of the functioning of the labor force are directly dependent on the method of communication between the manufacturer and the conditions of production.
The gender, age and professional qualification structure of the workforce, as well as its size, significantly influence the labor potential of the state. In those countries where the share of young workers is significant, there is extensive potential for their retraining, which is a key advantage in terms of introducing the achievements of scientific and technical progress.
1.2 The essence of unemployment, its types, causes and consequences
Unemployment is a complex and multifaceted socio-economic phenomenon, manifested in the lack of employment among a certain part of the working population, ready and able to carry out labor activities.
To objectively understand the essence of unemployment, it is necessary to determine who can be considered unemployed. The criteria for defining a person as unemployed are usually established by law or relevant documents. At the same time, in different countries these criteria may differ slightly from each other.
In the United States, unemployed people are considered to be people who have been unemployed for a week, who have been actively looking for work in the previous four weeks, who are temporarily laid off, or who are employed new job and must begin work within 30 days.
In Japan, people who have not worked a single hour during the week are considered unemployed. Posted on the site
In the UK, unemployed people are people who have been unemployed for a week, who are looking for work during this time or who are unable to look for work due to illness, or who are waiting for the outcome of negotiations for a job.
In the Russian Federation, the unemployed are “able-bodied citizens who do not have a job or income, are registered with the employment service in order to find a suitable job, are looking for work and are ready to start it. At the same time, payments of severance pay and maintained average earnings to citizens dismissed from organizations (military service) regardless of their organizational and legal form and form of ownership due to the liquidation of the organization or a reduction in the number or staff of the organization’s employees are not taken into account as earnings.”
IN modern economy unemployment is seen as a natural and integral part of the market economy. It promotes:
1.improving the quality structure of the labor force, its competitiveness as a product;
2.formation of a new motivational mechanism and an appropriate attitude towards work;
3.increasing the intrinsic value of the workplace and strengthening the connection between a person and work;
4.availability of a labor reserve in case of need for rapid deployment of new production.
In this regard, the classification of forms of unemployment according to various criteria presented in Table 1 is of great interest.
Table 1 - Forms of unemployment and their characteristics
| Form of unemployment | Characteristic |
| Causes of unemployment | |
| Friction | Caused by a voluntary change of job due to various reasons: the search for higher earnings or a more prestigious job with more favorable conditions labor, etc. |
| Institutional | Generated by the very structure of the labor market, factors influencing the demand and supply of labor |
| Voluntary | Appears when part of the working population, for one reason or another, simply does not want to work |
| Structural | Caused by changes in the structure of social production under the influence of scientific and technological progress and improved organization of production |
| Technological | Associated with the transition to new generations of equipment and technology, mechanization and automation of manual labor |
| Cyclic | Occurs when there is a general sharp drop in demand for labor during a period of decline in production and business activity caused by an economic crisis |
| Regional | It has a regional origin and is formed under the influence of a complex combination of historical, demographic, socio-psychological circumstances |
| Economic | Caused by market conditions, the defeat of some producers in competition |
| Seasonal | Caused by the seasonal nature of activity in certain industries |
|
Marginal |
Unemployment among vulnerable groups of the population |
| Duration of unemployment in months | |
| Short term | Up to 4 |
| Long lasting | 4-8 |
| Long-term | 8-18 |
| Stagnant | Over 18 |
| External form of unemployment | |
| Open | Includes all unemployed job seekers |
| Hidden | Includes workers actually employed in the economy, but not actually working, as well as those whose labor is not necessary. |
A logical continuation of this classification of forms of unemployment is its structuring according to the following gender, age, professional qualification and socio-demographic factors:
1.gender (with highlighting the least socially protected unemployed - women);
2.age (with a focus on youth unemployment and unemployment among people of pre-retirement age);
3. labor occupation (workers, managers, specialists, unskilled workers and others);
4.level of education;
5. level of income and security;
6.reasons for dismissal;
1) Inflated labor costs (wages) required by the seller or trade union. The behavior of the buyer (employer) in the labor market is determined in these conditions by the correlation of the costs of purchasing labor and the income that he will receive from its use for a certain period of time with the costs that he will incur in connection with the purchase of equipment that replaces the labor strength, and the result that this machine will bring him. Scientific and technological progress and an increase in the technological level of production are still one of the reasons for the growth of unemployment in modern conditions.
2) Low price of labor (wages), which is set by the employer. Depends on the degree of formation of the labor market, its flexibility and other characteristics. For example, in labor-abundant regions, the employer can dictate labor prices. In this case, the seller (hired worker) refuses to sell his labor for next to nothing and is looking for another buyer. For a certain time, he may find himself without work and be classified as unemployed.
3) Lack of cost, and, accordingly, the price of labor. There are always people in society who cannot be involved in the production process due to their lack of labor as such or the presence of labor of such low quality that the buyer (employer) does not want to purchase it. These are tramps, declassed elements, disabled people, etc. This category of citizens, as a rule, forever loses their job and hope of finding it and falls into the category of stagnant unemployed. Therefore, the key cause of unemployment is imbalance in the labor market. Such disequilibrium especially increases during economic downturns, wars, natural disasters etc.
Consequences of unemployment.
Unemployment has serious economic and social consequences. Some of the economic consequences of unemployment include the following:
1. underproduction, underutilization of society's production capabilities.
2. a significant decrease in the standard of living of people who find themselves unemployed, since work is their main source of livelihood;
3.decrease in the level of wages of employees as a result of emerging competition in the labor market;
4.increasing the tax burden on employees due to necessity social support unemployed, payments of benefits and compensation, etc.
In addition to purely economic costs, unemployment also has significant social and psychological consequences, often less obvious, but more serious than economic ones. The main ones are the following:
1.increasing political instability and social tension in society;
2. aggravation of the criminogenic situation, an increase in crime, since a significant number of offenses and crimes are committed by non-working persons;
3.an increase in the number of suicides, mental and cardiovascular diseases, mortality from alcoholism, and cases of deviant behavior in general;
4. deformation of the personality of the unemployed and his social connections, expressed in the appearance of depression in life among involuntarily unemployed citizens, their loss of qualifications and practical skills; exacerbation family relations and family breakdowns, reduction of external social connections of the unemployed. The consequences of unemployment are long-lasting. The former unemployed, even after employment, is characterized by reduced labor activity and conformity of behavior, which requires significant efforts to rehabilitate the unemployed.
The socio-psychological and economic consequences of unemployment clearly demonstrate that this is a very dangerous phenomenon for society and the individual, requiring an active employment policy aimed not only at eliminating the consequences of unemployment, but also at preventing and preventing its uncontrolled growth beyond the minimum acceptable value.
Chapter 2. Analysis of the state of unemployment in Russia for 2016-2017
2.1 Analysis of unemployment in Russia in 2000-2016
The crisis situation in the Russian economy since 2014 is closely interconnected with the employment sector of the country's population. Already at the beginning of 2015, unemployment began to rise. Official statistics differ from real unemployment figures. Therefore, let us pay attention to some points that Rosstat notes in notes, footnotes, and explanations of calculations.
Statistics are based on an analysis of a sample of the population, and not all citizens of the country. The official source reports summing up the results of a “sample survey of the population on employment problems.”
Statistics for Crimea are not taken into account. Quote from official source: “in order to ensure statistical comparability, the data were calculated without taking into account information for the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol.”
Unemployment is reduced not due to the employment of previously unemployed citizens, but due to a decrease in the number of economically active population. In other words: there are more old people and young people, and the working-age population is getting smaller.
There are many unemployed citizens in the country, about whose employment there is no official information or it is inaccurate. Thus, they are not taken into account in Rosstat reports and can distort the real unemployment situation in individual constituent entities of the Russian Federation and in the country as a whole.
Table 1. Unemployment rate in the Russian Federation in the 2000s
| 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |
| 10,6 | 9,0 | 7,9 | 8,2 | 7,8 | 7,1 | 7,1 | 6,0 | 6,2 | 8,3 |
Table 2. Unemployment rate in the 2010s
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
| 7,3 | 6,5 | 5,5 | 5,5 | 5,2 | 5,6 | 5,8 |
Figure 1. Dynamics of the unemployment rate from 2000 to 2016.
In 2016, the unemployment rate decreased to 5.3% of the labor force (with the exception of seasonal factors - to 5.2% of the labor force). On average, in 2016, unemployment amounted to 5.5% of the total labor force (in the methodology of the balance of labor resources, according to the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, 5.8% of the labor force), which is 0.1 percentage point less than in 2015 .
Table 1. Russian labor market in 2016.
At the end of the year, there was a slight increase in the labor force due to an increase in the number of employed people in such activities as Education, Transport and Communications and Agriculture. On average, in 2016, the labor force and the employed population showed a symbolic increase of 0.1 percent. Registered unemployment at the end of 2016 amounted to 895 thousand people (5.5% mom).
A positive moment in the labor market can be considered the decrease in part-time employment at the end of 2016. Thus, according to monitoring indicators of the Ministry of Labor of Russia, the number of part-time workers who are on downtime at the initiative of the administration and on vacation by agreement of the parties, as of the end of 2016, amounted to 258.8 thousand people, i.e. 2.3 thousand fewer people than at the beginning of December 2016.
As a result of a decrease in the number of vacancies and an increase in registered unemployment, the tension ratio increased from 81.5 people per 100 vacancies in November to 86.8 people per 100 vacancies in December.
In general, unemployment in Russia in 2016 can be considered satisfactory, especially taking into account the economic situation in the country.
2.2 Analysis of unemployment in Russia in 2017
Since January 2017, Rosstat has been selectively surveying the state of labor force employment among the population aged 15 years and older. According to the results of the study, in June 2017, the labor force amounted to 76.2 million people, which is 52% of the total population of the country, of which 72.3 million people were employed in the economy and 3.9 million people were not had a job, but were actively looking for it (in accordance with the ILO methodology, they are classified as unemployed). The employment rate of the population aged 15 years and older was fixed at 59.5%, the unemployment rate - 5.1%.
Until 2017, the population aged 15-72 years was surveyed. In order to continue the dynamic series, the following information is provided on the number and composition of workers at the specified age.
The labor force aged 15-72 years in June 2017 amounted to 75.9 million people, of which 72.1 million people were classified as employed economic activity and 3.8 million people as unemployed using ILO criteria (i.e., did not have a job or gainful occupation, were looking for work and were ready to start work in the survey week).
Unemployment rate (ratio of the number of unemployed to the labor force) in June 2017. amounted to 5.1% (without excluding the seasonal factor).
The employment rate (the ratio of the employed population to the total population aged 15-72 years) in 2017 was 65.5%.
Table 2. Number and composition of the labor force aged 15-72 years.
(not seasonally adjusted)
| IIquarter 2017 | 2017 | IIquarter 2016 |
IIquarter 2017 co IIquarter 2016, |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | May | June | ||||
| Thousand people | ||||||
| Aged workforce 15-72 years |
75843 | 75763 | 75816 | 75950 | 76558 | -715 |
| busy | 71896 | 71713 | 71871 | 72104 | 72225 | -329 |
| unemployed | 3947 | 4050 | 3945 | 3846 | 4333 | -386 |
| Percentage | ||||||
|
Level of participation in labor force (labor force to population aged 15-72 years) |
68,8 | 68,8 | 68,8 | 68,9 | 69,5 | -0,7 |
|
Employment level (employed to number aged population 15-72 years old) |
65,3 | 65,1 | 65,2 | 65,5 | 65,5 | -0,2 |
|
Unemployment rate (unemployed to labor force) |
5,2 | 5,3 | 5,2 | 5,1 | 5,7 | -0,5 |
Number of employed people in June 2017 increased compared to May 2017 by 232 thousand people, or 0.3%, and decreased compared to June 2016 - by 570 thousand people, or 0.8%.
Number of unemployed in June 2017 compared to May 2017 decreased by 99 thousand people, or 2.5%, compared to June 2016. - by 331 thousand people, or 7.9%.
The total number of unemployed people classified in accordance with ILO criteria was 4.7 times higher than the number of unemployed people registered in government institutions employment services. At the end of June 2017 In state employment service institutions, 816 thousand people were registered as unemployed, which is 3.2% less than in May 2017. and by 15.7% compared to June 2016.
Among the unemployed (according to ILO methodology), the share of women in June 2017 amounted to 47.8%, urban residents - 64.7%, youth under 25 years of age - 21.8%, persons with no work experience - 27.3%.
The unemployment rate among rural residents (7.6%) exceeds the unemployment rate among urban residents (4.3%). In June 2017 this excess was 1.8 times.
In June 2017 Among the unemployed, the share of people who left their previous place of work due to the dismissal or reduction of the number of employees, the liquidation of an organization or their own business was 14.9%, and in connection with dismissal due to at will- 24.6% (in June 2016, 18.5% and 25.3%, respectively).
Unemployment by federal districts. Let's consider unemployment rate by regions of Russia in 2016-2017 years.
Russia unemployment 2016 course work
In order to increase the information content of the data, indicators of the labor force, employment and unemployment for the constituent entities of the Russian Federation are given on average for the last three months.
Table 3. Number and composition of the workforce in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.
At the age of 15-72 years (according to sample labor force surveys on average for the second quarter of 2017)
|
Number working strength, thousand Human |
Including | Level, % | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| busy | unemployed | labor force participation | employment | unemployment | ||
| Russian Federation | 75843,1 | 71896,2 | 3946,9 | 68,8 | 65,3 | 5,2 |
|
Central federal district |
21184,5 | 20496,3 | 688,2 | 71,0 | 68,7 | 3,2 |
| Belgorod region | 823,3 | 790,9 | 32,4 | 70,2 | 67,4 | 3,9 |
| Bryansk region | 606,1 | 584,5 | 21,5 | 65,9 | 63,5 | 3,6 |
| Vladimir region | 741,9 | 709,4 | 32,5 | 70,5 | 67,4 | 4,4 |
| Voronezh region | 1173,3 | 1122,0 | 51,3 | 66,4 | 63,5 | 4,4 |
| Ivanovo region | 529,8 | 504,5 | 25,3 | 68,3 | 65,1 | 4,8 |
| Kaluga region | 529,1 | 507,1 | 22,0 | 69,2 | 66,3 | 4,2 |
| Kostroma region | 318,3 | 301,9 | 16,4 | 65,7 | 62,4 | 5,1 |
| Kursk region | 571,7 | 548,1 | 23,6 | 67,9 | 65,1 | 4,1 |
| Lipetsk region | 603,3 | 579,5 | 23,8 | 69,5 | 66,7 | 3,9 |
| Moscow region | 4074,5 | 3936,8 | 137,7 | 72,8 | 70,4 | 3,4 |
| Oryol region | 376,7 | 350,3 | 26,4 | 65,6 | 61,0 | 7,0 |
| Ryazan region | 529,7 | 512,1 | 17,6 | 62,3 | 60,2 | 3,3 |
| Smolensk region | 509,4 | 479,5 | 29,9 | 69,1 | 65,0 | 5,9 |
| Tambov region | 517,7 | 493,5 | 24,2 | 65,0 | 62,0 | 4,7 |
| Tver region | 678,2 | 646,0 | 32,1 | 69,4 | 66,1 | 4,7 |
| Tula region | 789,9 | 761,2 | 28,7 | 69,0 | 66,5 | 3,6 |
| Yaroslavl region | 651,4 | 608,6 | 42,8 | 68,5 | 64,0 | 6,6 |
| Moscow | 7160,3 | 7060,3 | 100,0 | 75,0 | 73,9 | 1,4 |
|
Northwestern federal district |
7559,3 | 7251,9 | 307,4 | 71,3 | 68,4 | 4,1 |
| Republic of Karelia | 320,9 | 296,5 | 24,4 | 67,6 | 62,5 | 7,6 |
| Komi Republic | 450,0 | 419,4 | 30,6 | 69,2 | 64,5 | 6,8 |
| Arkhangelsk region | 588,9 | 551,7 | 37,2 | 66,9 | 62,6 | 6,3 |
| including Nenets Autonomous Okrug |
21,1 | 19,4 | 1,7 | 65,9 | 60,4 | 8,3 |
| Arkhangelsk region without auto district |
567,7 | 532,3 | 35,4 | 66,9 | 62,7 | 6,2 |
| Vologda region | 591,3 | 563,7 | 27,6 | 66,9 | 63,8 | 4,7 |
| Kaliningrad region | 508,9 | 482,1 | 26,8 | 68,1 | 64,5 | 5,3 |
| Leningrad region | 996,6 | 950,9 | 45,7 | 72,2 | 68,9 | 4,6 |
| Murmansk region | 441,0 | 411,0 | 30,0 | 74,6 | 69,5 | 6,8 |
| Novgorod region | 318,7 | 304,1 | 14,7 | 69,6 | 66,4 | 4,6 |
| Pskov region | 314,5 | 293,4 | 21,1 | 64,7 | 60,4 | 6,7 |
| St. Petersburg | 3028,5 | 2979,1 | 49,3 | 74,7 | 73,5 | 1,6 |
|
Southern federal district |
8109,7 | 7618,5 | 491,2 | 66,3 | 62,3 | 6,1 |
| Republic of Adygea | 200,1 | 182,5 | 17,6 | 60,2 | 54,9 | 8,8 |
| Republic of Kalmykia | 133,5 | 121,7 | 11,7 | 65,0 | 59,3 | 8,8 |
| Republic of Crimea | 909,3 | 851,1 | 58,2 | 63,9 | 59,8 | 6,4 |
| Krasnodar region | 2748,7 | 2589,4 | 159,3 | 67,0 | 63,1 | 5,8 |
| Astrakhan region | 533,8 | 495,2 | 38,6 | 71,0 | 65,9 | 7,2 |
| Volgograd region | 1238,0 | 1162,4 | 75,6 | 64,8 | 60,9 | 6,1 |
| Rostov region | 2141,6 | 2020,2 | 121,4 | 67,0 | 63,2 | 5,7 |
| Sevastopol | 204,7 | 196,0 | 8,6 | 64,7 | 62,0 | 4,2 |
|
North Caucasian federal district |
4537,7 | 4031,6 | 506,1 | 65,2 | 57,9 | 11,2 |
| Republic of Dagestan | 1356,1 | 1190,0 | 166,1 | 63,0 | 55,2 | 12,2 |
| Republic of Ingushetia | 244,4 | 177,7 | 66,8 | 75,2 | 54,7 | 27,3 |
| Kabardino-Balkarian Republic |
436,9 | 394,7 | 42,2 | 68,9 | 62,3 | 9,7 |
| Karachay-Cherkessia Republic |
208,8 | 179,9 | 28,9 | 60,8 | 52,4 | 13,9 |
| Northern Republic Ossetia - Alania |
327,9 | 288,1 | 39,7 | 64,7 | 56,9 | 12,1 |
| Chechen Republic | 621,5 | 534,2 | 87,3 | 68,5 | 58,9 | 14,0 |
| Stavropol region | 1341,9 | 1267,0 | 75,0 | 64,1 | 60,5 | 5,6 |
|
Privolzhsky federal district |
15153,7 | 14430,2 | 723,4 | 68,1 | 64,9 | 4,8 |
| Republic of Bashkortostan | 1950,2 | 1842,5 | 107,7 | 65,0 | 61,4 | 5,5 |
| Republic of Mari El | 344,3 | 322,8 | 21,5 | 67,0 | 62,8 | 6,2 |
| Republic of Mordovia | 438,4 | 419,8 | 18,6 | 70,3 | 67,4 | 4,2 |
| Republic of Tatarstan | 2047,7 | 1972,2 | 75,5 | 71,0 | 68,4 | 3,7 |
| Udmurt Republic | 794,5 | 753,1 | 41,4 | 70,5 | 66,8 | 5,2 |
| Chuvash Republic | 627,5 | 595,2 | 32,3 | 68,1 | 64,6 | 5,2 |
| Perm region | 1265,5 | 1183,2 | 82,3 | 64,7 | 60,5 | 6,5 |
| Kirov region | 664,9 | 629,1 | 35,8 | 68,5 | 64,8 | 5,4 |
| Nizhny Novgorod region | 1772,4 | 1697,1 | 75,3 | 71,9 | 68,8 | 4,3 |
| Orenburg region | 1014,9 | 969,5 | 45,4 | 69,0 | 65,9 | 4,5 |
| Penza region | 677,2 | 646,6 | 30,7 | 66,1 | 63,1 | 4,5 |
| Samara region | 1716,5 | 1645,3 | 71,1 | 70,4 | 67,5 | 4,1 |
| Saratov region | 1208,2 | 1150,3 | 58,0 | 64,2 | 61,2 | 4,8 |
| Ulyanovsk region | 631,4 | 603,4 | 28,0 | 65,8 | 62,9 | 4,4 |
|
Ural federal district |
6357,1 | 5992,8 | 364,3 | 69,1 | 65,2 | 5,7 |
| Kurgan region | 402,9 | 367,4 | 35,5 | 64,0 | 58,3 | 8,8 |
| Sverdlovsk region | 2153,8 | 2029,3 | 124,5 | 66,7 | 62,9 | 5,8 |
| Tyumen region | 1943,2 | 1866,8 | 76,4 | 71,1 | 68,3 | 3,9 |
| including: Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug - Ugra |
910,3 | 881,5 | 28,8 | 73,4 | 71,1 | 3,2 |
| Yamalo-Nenets auto district |
312,4 | 301,6 | 10,8 | 76,5 | 73,8 | 3,5 |
| Tyumen region without auto districts |
720,5 | 683,6 | 36,9 | 66,5 | 63,1 | 5,1 |
| Chelyabinsk region | 1857,2 | 1729,3 | 127,8 | 71,3 | 66,4 | 6,9 |
|
Siberian federal district |
9600,5 | 8913,8 | 686,7 | 66,8 | 62,0 | 7,2 |
| Altai Republic | 97,8 | 87,3 | 10,5 | 65,9 | 58,8 | 10,8 |
| Republic of Buryatia | 443,2 | 401,2 | 42,0 | 62,7 | 56,7 | 9,5 |
| Republic of Tyva | 122,0 | 101,5 | 20,5 | 59,3 | 49,4 | 16,8 |
| Republic of Khakassia | 260,9 | 249,9 | 11,0 | 65,9 | 63,2 | 4,2 |
| Altai region | 1122,0 | 1050,4 | 71,6 | 63,3 | 59,2 | 6,4 |
| Transbaikal region | 535,1 | 477,7 | 57,4 | 67,2 | 60,0 | 10,7 |
| Krasnoyarsk region | 1496,8 | 1414,9 | 81,9 | 69,2 | 65,4 | 5,5 |
| Irkutsk region | 1199,2 | 1095,3 | 103,9 | 67,5 | 61,7 | 8,7 |
| Kemerovo region | 1337,1 | 1241,8 | 95,3 | 66,0 | 61,3 | 7,1 |
| Novosibirsk region | 1406,2 | 1329,0 | 77,2 | 67,4 | 63,7 | 5,5 |
| Omsk region | 1032,1 | 960,4 | 71,8 | 69,6 | 64,8 | 7,0 |
| Tomsk region | 548,1 | 504,4 | 43,6 | 66,8 | 61,4 | 8,0 |
|
Far Eastern federal district |
3340,6 | 3161,1 | 179,6 | 70,7 | 66,9 | 5,4 |
| Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) | 499,7 | 467,0 | 32,7 | 70,8 | 66,2 | 6,5 |
| Kamchatka region | 179,1 | 172,8 | 6,3 | 72,3 | 69,7 | 3,5 |
| Primorsky Krai | 1030,2 | 974,3 | 55,9 | 69,3 | 65,5 | 5,4 |
| Khabarovsk region | 734,5 | 702,8 | 31,7 | 71,7 | 68,6 | 4,3 |
| Amur region | 417,6 | 392,3 | 25,3 | 68,8 | 64,7 | 6,0 |
| Magadan region | 90,0 | 85,0 | 5,0 | 77,8 | 73,5 | 5,6 |
| Sakhalin region | 273,5 | 257,6 | 15,9 | 72,5 | 68,3 | 5,8 |
| Jewish Autonomous Region | 85,2 | 79,6 | 5,6 | 68,7 | 64,2 | 6,6 |
| Chukotka Autonomous Okrug | 30,9 | 29,6 | 1,3 | 79,6 | 76,4 | 4,1 |
| In some cases, minor discrepancies between the total and the sum of the terms are explained by rounding of digital data. | ||||||
The lowest unemployment rate is observed in the Central Federal District, the highest in the North Caucasus Federal District.
These are the statistics on unemployment in Russia in 2016-2017.
2.3 The fight against unemployment in Russia: directions, methods, results
The state plays a priority role in the fight against unemployment. To regulate the labor market in order to ensure employment, the state works in various directions, the key of which can be considered:
State support for private entrepreneurs;
Social unemployment insurance;
Various programs to increase the number of jobs;
Programs to stimulate employment growth;
Allocation of funds for various types unemployment benefits;
Providing training;
Retraining of the unemployed;
Providing jobs for specific groups (youth, disabled people);
International cooperation(migration);
Organization of public works.
Now let’s look at specific practical measures taken by the Government of the Russian Federation in 2016-2017 to combat unemployment.
In 2016, the Russian government allocated 776 million rubles to 17 Russian regions to combat unemployment.
These funds made it possible to provide employment to more than 25.8 thousand workers who were at risk of dismissal and people looking for work.
The funds were distributed to residents of Buryatia, Ingushetia, Karelia, Komi, the Chuvash Republic, Altai, Trans-Baikal Territories, Ivanovo, Kaliningrad, Kurgan, Nizhny Novgorod, Ryazan, Saratov, Smolensk, Tula, Chelyabinsk and Yaroslavl regions.
The regions allocated money to implement employment programs. Namely - for advanced vocational training and internships for workers at risk of dismissal;
For compensation to employers implementing enterprise development programs, including import substitution, innovation, personnel development, expenses for partial remuneration of workers dismissed from other organizations, guys who graduated from professional educational institutions and the unemployed;
To organize temporary employment of people at risk of dismissal; to reimburse employers for costs associated with the employment of disabled people.
In 2017, measures to combat unemployment in Russia include:
1. INTRODUCTION of restrictive quotas on foreign labor (quotas on issuing invitations to foreign citizens to enter Russian Federation for employment purposes).
2. Promoting the introduction of additional jobs and employment of citizens in small and medium-sized businesses.
3.Development of a five-year forecast of demand for labor with secondary vocational education in the country and regions.
4.Mass adoption of private and public online learning platforms. List of programs for retraining in the field digital economy will be determined with the participation of universities and private companies with advanced training courses and educational developments.
For 2017, it is planned to continue reforming the current model of unemployment regulation, i.e. reduction of inefficient jobs. This process requires the restructuring of city-forming enterprises, the creation of special programs for advanced training, and the development of a new specialty.
Also in 2017, it is planned to develop incentive systems for late retirement for the most highly qualified workers.
The key determinants of the reduction in unemployment in Russia in 2017 may be both external and internal phenomena and circumstances. External ones include further development cooperation with priority trade and economic partners, including in the construction of gas pipelines to Turkey and China. Among the internal factors, along with others, it is also necessary to include the weather factor, on which, for example, the growth in the number of people employed in the agricultural sector depends. This also includes the implementation of large-scale infrastructure projects, such as the construction of the Kerch Bridge, the construction of facilities for the 2018 FIFA World Cup, the development of energy fields in the Arctic, etc.
Update:
According to the latest statistics, Russia has the lowest unemployment rate in the last three years, the Bank of Russia reported in August 2017.
Its level dropped to 4.9%, which is very typical for late summer and early autumn. But exactly this indicator has not been observed since 2014.
The regulator notes that this year the decrease in August compared to July was the largest in the last five years, since in July the unemployment rate increased despite seasonality. This was due to a shift in harvest dates due to the cold first half of summer, which occurred in most Russian regions.
Conclusion
Unemployment is a socio-economic phenomenon in the labor market in which a certain part of the working-age population is unemployed due to the lack of effective demand on the part of employers for labor as a factor of production.
Unemployment has remained relevant throughout history. Despite social, economic and technological progress, the problem of unemployment does not lose its relevance, and on the contrary, it is gaining momentum.
To assess unemployment in economics, various indicators are used, but the unemployment rate is generally accepted. It is determined by the ratio of the total number of unemployed to the number of able-bodied citizens in percentage terms.
Main types of unemployment: institutional, structural, seasonal, frictional, cyclical. Each type of unemployment is determined by its specific causes and circumstances. At the same time, in Western macroeconomic theory it is customary to identify three main causes of unemployment - economic conditions, new technologies and a growing population.
Unemployment in Russia has a specific character; it has very diverse and atypical features. The reasons for its development include general economic instability, inadequate market infrastructure, the global crisis, population migration, and overcrowding in certain regions of the country.
Tensions continue to grow in the labor market in Russia: this is facilitated by optimization, too small benefits and the absence of an unemployment insurance system, according to experts interviewed by Izvestia.
According to the weekly monitoring of the labor market in the constituent entities of Russia, which was provided by the Ministry of Labor of the Russian Federation, the number of officially registered unemployed citizens in Russia increased by 0.3% over the week, to 923,615 people, the department’s press service confirmed to Izvestia.
An increase in the number of unemployed was recorded in 53 regions, the largest in Sevastopol and Kabardino-Balkaria. The number of unemployed decreased in 27 regions, most intensively in Kalmykia, Buryatia, Karachay-Cherkessia, Stavropol Territory, and Astrakhan Region.
Unemployment protection
“Official data is one fifth of the real number of people; in general, there are about 5 million unemployed people in Russia, and these are those who have registered. Today there are a little more of them, then a little less - the fact is that the unemployment benefit is minimal - 850 rubles per month, people are in no hurry to register, since it gives very little to a person,” explains Mikhail Shmakov, chairman of the Federation of Independent Trade Unions of Russia.
In return, the expert proposes to review the entire unemployment protection system, introduce unemployment insurance, increase unemployment benefits, “so that you can live on it, but, of course, it should be conditioned by the fact that the person is actively looking for work.”
According to him, there are people who simply do not want to work, but this is their private matter.
“The optimal benefit for the benefit would be the benefit amount at least at the level living wage, and then, depending on the length of service, for this it is necessary to revive the unemployment insurance system,” notes Shmakov.
Tensions are rising
The crisis for the labor market has not ended, the processes continue, this concerns primarily the budgetary sector, says Vice-Rector of the Academy of Labor and Social Relations Alexander Safonov, specifying that in 2017 it will become to a certain extent the driver of the production of unemployed.
“This is due to the need to comply with the President’s May decrees on increasing wages. Since funding is not increasing, the only source is optimization,” the expert notes.
We are also talking about the deterioration of the economic situation, including a decrease in consumer demand, adds Safonov - and this leads to the fact that entrepreneurs, without sales growth, are forced to continue optimization.
“Today we do not have the conditions for stabilizing employment and its growth, so what is reflected in the statistics of employment services is a distant echo,” the specialist emphasizes.
According to the expert, if we are talking about an increase in the number of people who have officially received unemployed status, this may indicate that people are desperate to find work on their own and are forced to resort to the services of the employment service in order to receive hope and unemployment benefits.
“Therefore, traditionally, we have an increase in unemployment in regions that are considered depressed, as a rule, these are the Far Eastern Federal District and the Southern Federal District, in particular the North Caucasus. Plus, the trends are multidirectional and difficult to judge, since official unemployment there may be decreasing, because a certain number of people drop out of the unemployment ranks by virtue of the law - they were found a job, they refused to accept the offer, the periods of being unemployed were long, their They were sent for training, so in each specific case we need to understand what is happening there,” Safonov is sure.
We can say that tension in the labor market continues to increase, the expert concludes: new jobs are not being created, and old ones are being optimized.
The past year brought an unpleasant surprise - three close friends lost their jobs and were stuck in search. A 52-year-old office manager for a travel company, a 40-year-old specialist in the supply of electrical equipment for enterprises, a 29-year-old curator of cultural projects at VDNKh. The contingent is too diverse to consider that they are in a narrow risk zone.
Analysts at the recruiting company Superjob believe that 2017 will be a turning point for Russian market labor. Companies will try to hire the best employees and put existing ones under the conditions of “develop or leave.” Starting from 2018, offers for low-skilled employees will be reduced by 5% every year. Real unemployment will rise by the same figure. Thus, with current trends general level real unemployment in Russia may increase several times by 2022, to 20-25%. The demand for highly qualified specialists will only grow. It will not be possible to maintain employment of the population using existing methods of state employment support.
The timelessness of the crisis will also bring a change in demand in the labor market.
Demand will increase for web developers, information security and cybersecurity specialists.
In the field of raw material extraction, specialists in exploration and development of deposits and improvement of technologies will be needed.
In industry - engineers in mechanical engineering, in the oil and gas segment, specialists in the forestry industry, engineers in the aviation and food industries.
In sales - sales managers of high-tech products.
In the banking sector - managers, specialists in working with collateral and problem debt.
In jurisprudence - specialists in the field of international and tax law.
HR will be in demand: HR directors, analysts with a technical background, internal training specialists.
Those at risk of losing their jobs will be accountants entry level, reductions in the number of accounting departments at medium and large enterprises, including state-owned ones, will continue. By 2020, the job market for entry-level accountants and record keepers could shrink threefold.
Banks will stop posting new vacancies and will begin reducing the positions of specialists involved in paperwork.
The demand for contact and call center employees will decrease due to the expansion of automation of such types of activities. In general, in the coming years the amount of work for information processing specialists will be reduced significantly.
The demand for foreign language teachers will decrease.
From 2018, the demand for skilled workers at industrial enterprises will begin to decline.
The fact that the labor market in Russia is living in anticipation of another protracted stress is also evidenced by the following fact: a year ago the number of Russians agreeing to a salary according to the “black” or “gray” scheme was minimal, but today 47% of respondents are ready to refuse "white" salary. Women of pre-retirement age and young people under 25 years of age find it most difficult to find work.
In April 2016, unemployment in Russia was 6%. This is about 4.5 million people. Employment services provided information about a million applicants. And various social surveys indicate that 27% of citizens in 2016 complained about job cuts.
Job center
The Basmanny employment center on Lyalin Lane is empty in the middle of the working day.
There is one girl sitting in the corridor. The administrator in the hall asks what interests me. I answer that, in principle, I am interested in how they can help me as an unemployed person here. “This is for your third office.” A young man at a computer asks for a passport. It turns out that I can’t just look at vacancies - first I have to register at the employment center at my place of registration.
— What if you don’t have any vacancies that interest me? Maybe I should find out first and then register?
—What are you interested in?
— Tourism manager.
There are two vacancies. But they don’t tell me the addresses of the companies or their salaries.
— You still register, and then we will search.
There are a lot of materials on the walls of the center. I find out that the top most in-demand profession is a driver: there are more than 9 thousand vacancies in Moscow with an average salary of 32 thousand. Next in the popularity rating are: bricklayer, janitor, sailor, fitter, plasterer, policeman, nurse, massage therapist. There are 581 requests for a correspondent with an average salary of 19 thousand.
I go to another door, where, as they explained, I can sign up for courses. You have to wait a few minutes because the list of courses in a single copy is handed out in the presence of an employee.
An elderly man stands looking through the list. I am waiting. Having received the printed file, I find out that you can train as a tractor driver, excavator operator, plasterer, industrial climber and many other things that require outstanding physical condition. This is clearly not suitable. I ask what is there for me. The employee starts the same conversation: you need to register first. In response to my arguments that I want to understand what can, in principle, be counted on, the response is: “Well, I don’t know what you want.” I want a profession in the humanities, or at least in the service sector. “Here, look. We still plan to launch this this year, but it is not yet clear when. If you register, you will receive recruitment messages. But keep in mind that preferential categories will be recorded here. If there are places left, you will get in.”
The bottom line is: with some luck I can learn to use personal computer, be a merchandiser, web designer, hairdresser and social worker.
If you type the query “reviews about the employment center” into a search engine, negative ones will prevail by a critical margin.
“All these employment centers are a complete fiction. They pretend to help us find a job, and we pretend to believe them. I quit the bank, and they gave me a referral again to the same bank, but in a different area of Moscow. Other vacancies offered to me, a former bank employee, were as follows: linen ironer at the Leningradsky station, sausage packer, lock packer, lock assembler, cleaner, courier, cashier in a supermarket, pot salesman.”
“Right away, the psychologist tells you that it is IMPOSSIBLE to find a job through this service. I met many classmates there. They also DID NOT HELP. Even in working professions. Is that normal? This service ideally monitors the correct accrual of money - this is its function, but in no way searches for vacancies. You call about a vacancy, and they answer that we have other requirements and are surprised at the direction issued by the service. It stood there for a year to no avail.”
However, the official information, which is regularly published in the Labor Exchange newspaper, the organ of the Department of Labor and Social Protection of the Moscow Population, looks quite optimistic: out of 139 thousand people who applied to the service in 2016, 106 thousand were employed. Of the total number of vacancies, 55% are vacancies for workers, 18% are vacancies for which employers plan to attract foreign workers. 78 thousand people received additional vocational training and education.
Evgeniy Gontmakher: “Our man is ready to do anything to formally stay at work”
Evgeniy Gontmakher is a Russian economist, deputy director for scientific work Institute of World Economy and international relations, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor. Photo: RIA Novosti- IN Last August, Labor Minister Topilin reported that unemployment in Russia remained at 6% and nothing terrible was happening.
— This 6% unemployment rate is measured according to the methodology of the International Labor Organization (ILO), and is obtained as a result of a large survey. It is conducted by Rosstat and surveys tens of thousands of people. They come up to you on the street and ask: “Are you working or not working?” If the answer is yes, then that’s it, goodbye. And if: “No, I don’t work,” they ask: “Are you looking for a job or not looking for a job?” If the answer is “No,” then the person who answered is also not included in these statistics. A person may not be looking for a job, he wants to relax and study. And if he answers “Yes,” then he is asked: “Are you ready to immediately take any job that is offered to you?” A person may say: “I’m not ready, I’m an engineer and I don’t want to become a janitor.” And he also falls out. And if only a person already says: “Yes, I’m ready,” he is brought to a crisis situation.
— That is, these 6% - desperate people looking for work?
— These are really the ones who really need work now. And here we have 6%. By world standards, this is a very good parameter.
In fact, our problem is not with unemployment, but with employment. In the country, almost everyone who wants to works works, with the exception of small towns, where, if you lose your job, you can really find yourself in a hopeless situation.
Most people work for us, but they don’t like their work. They don’t like their specialty or position, they think they are underpaid. People are afraid that they may lose their jobs, this is one of our biggest phobias now.
— The Ministry of Labor registers almost 1.5 million vacancies and a million unemployed. But these vacancies and chronically unemployed people do not occur. Why?
— Our job search system is quite archaic. Few of those who have lost their jobs go to the employment center. Our man, having become unemployed, first of all begins to scour his acquaintances and relatives. This is a classic way to, as they say, “get a job through an acquaintance.” Back in the 2000s, you could get a job like this and get a job of approximately the same quality as you had. Then the heyday of guest workers began.
— Did they go to jobs that were not considered at all by our people at that time?
— Yes. Moreover, we have developed a system where Russian workers were not profitable for Russian employers in construction, public utilities, and trade. Because a Russian person still has some rights. And if you have a Tajik at a construction site, he can live somewhere in the back room, you don’t have to pay any medical insurance for him, you can simply deceive him with the payment of his salary. Almost all the positions of nurses, nannies, and housekeepers were also filled with migrant workers. There were cases when a person with a Russian passport, who suddenly wanted to become a janitor or plumber, was forced out by his employer. Now the situation has changed.
— When you say “now,” do you mean the last two years?
— Yes. And the situation changed on both sides. Firstly, the ruble was devalued and it is no longer so profitable for the unfortunate Tajik to work in Russia. Secondly, unemployment has not increased much, but the quality of employment has decreased even more.
When an economic crisis hits Europe, what does an employer do? He simply fires some of the staff. But the employer does not even think about cutting wages while maintaining the job. Those who are not needed are fired, and the rest receive full salaries. Because when the crisis passes, recovery begins, jobs are created, and those who find themselves left behind know that they can, with some effort, return to the labor market.
— On the same level?
— Maybe to the same level. By the way, in Europe and the USA there is a system of continuous education. The person was fired, but he doesn’t sit and wait: “Oh, now a vacancy will open...” He retrains. He wants to catch on to the new job market.
But the kind of behavior that developed in Russia, when a person is ready to do anything to formally stay at work even for minimal money, does not exist in the West. This is a very serious psychological phenomenon.
— Is this bad for the economy?
- Very. Because if a country’s economy develops, then jobs are created that are fundamentally different from those that existed before. A crisis is a renewal. Non-competitive enterprises and firms are closed, and then others are created at the recovery stage. Accordingly, the labor force must be different in its qualities. This process is not happening here. Because the domestic economy is not changing in terms of job structure. We have very good jobs in Gazprom and Rosneft. There is a public administration sector. Why do people so love to go into government, to be an official? Well, this is at least some kind of guarantee of employment and salary. We have large number jobs in the public sector (health care, education), but there are now constant cuts there.
And our workers, especially in the provinces, finding themselves in a position where they begin to earn pennies, are now moving into a niche that was previously occupied exclusively by guest workers. Do you know where the “guards” in Moscow are mostly from, these men near the barriers? From Mordovia. They work here for two weeks, seven days a week, rent some apartments where they live en masse, and eat the cheapest food. But then they go home, bring a certain amount of money, which is very good for that area, and they are not unemployed.
Speaking about unemployment, it is important to understand that there is so-called frictional unemployment, that is, very short-term unemployment. You were fired, but two weeks later you got a job somewhere else. This is “natural unemployment”. And there is stagnant unemployment, when a person has lost his job and cannot find one for six months or a year. This is dangerous unemployment. There is still little of it in Russia.
— Not much for now. What will happen?
— We have an economic crisis, quite a long one, and, paradoxically, it solves many aspects of physical unemployment, when people agree to any unskilled job.
— That is, the crisis is forcing people to make some compromises?
— Surprisingly, yes.
— But what about the habit of Russian people to sit on 12 thousand to the last, but not look for a better life?
— Something is changing here. A phenomenon called “otkhodnichestvo” has arisen again. Remember from history, this happened before the revolution, when teams of barge haulers and carpenters went to major cities for earnings? Now there are a lot of teams that are renovating apartments. Some part of our people are ready to give up their status in order to still earn money.
— And people with a “diploma” who are accustomed to a certain status, it’s impossible for them to just go and become nurses. What will they do?
— Don’t take Moscow, people here have higher demands. And a teacher from the provinces will easily become a nurse. This is not yet visible in Moscow, but all of Russia is already beginning to slowly switch to the type of work “from engineer to service worker.” On the one hand, this is good, because these people are not unemployed. The problem is that they are losing their skills.
— The working-age part of the population loses their qualifications in stagnant jobs, while at the same time inevitably aging. Are young people not filling this niche?
— But there is no niche. There is a very limited range of prestigious jobs, and b O Most of our economy is completely archaic jobs.
— That is, ineffective?
— Well, yes, you work at a huge machine-building plant that produces who knows what. That’s why the wages there are low, because they don’t really buy your products. Small businesses, which are characterized by existing on the brink of cost, are in distress. Add administrative pressure, unavailability of loans, unavailability of rent. You are not allowed to participate in government procurement so that you can sell your products to the state.
On the issue of youth. Here is a person who graduated from a prestigious university, where will he go? Either through connections, dad and mom will get a job at the so-called Gazprom, or in the civil service (in the broad sense of the word). But more people are being produced than these two segments of the labor market require. It is no coincidence that the concept of “office plankton” appeared. Until some time ago it was flourishing. The banking sector, insurance, and the so-called service economy grew. Employers in these sectors did not care much about cutting costs. They were swimming in profits and therefore there were stories associated with prestige: I’m the head of a department in a bank, and I definitely need three advisers.
However, this phenomenon began to fade back in 2008-2009, when the first stage of the economic crisis occurred. And when our business decided to remove ballast, that is, cut office plankton.
Now the severity of the situation is compensated by the fact that a small generation is beginning to enter the labor market. There are fewer and fewer young people graduating from universities now, and this will be a fairly long period.
— This means the disqualification of the educated layer in Russia.
— Disqualification is a latent process. Topilin can report for another 20 years: “We are doing well with unemployment.” But inevitably there is a gradual degradation of our human capital; people simply join in order to have a job. And their work does not correspond to the knowledge they have received.
— How does he feel? creative class”, which at one time came en masse to Bolotnaya?
— He is degrading too. There weren’t that many protesters even by the scale of Moscow—the largest rally on Sakharov gathered 100 thousand. There were very few in other cities. What happened to them? Some small but most active part left. Last year, in the fall, we published a report on emigration from Russia. There are very difficult numbers there. There are not many of these people, but they are the most active, the most energetic. They take this energy with them.
Second. B O The majority of these people, of course, have accepted that nothing will change here, that no one needs their efforts.
The third is degradation. Some people have certainly degenerated. Maybe this part is not very large yet, but these are people who never got the opportunity to realize their creative freedom.
— You are painting a terrible picture.
— And she’s really scary. Why? Because we are cutting off our own future.
— Our electorate is completely passive, and even its own decay will not shake it.
— Don’t count these elections out, they will happen tomorrow. I'm talking about perspective. Putin will become president in 2018, this is clear. So he comes to his office, he has six years ahead of him, and I don’t understand what he’s going to do with this country for another six years when his people are dying. That is, everything seems to be calm, no one goes to rallies, 86% support him... In fact, it looks like oncology. You can live with it for years and years, you may not know about it, and then one fine day it suddenly shows itself, and you understand that you will die in six months. Nobody knows when this collective tumor will make itself known. Maybe in 10 years, maybe later, but it will happen.
— In your opinion, social pessimism — is this the main problem of our human resource?
— Our person loses valence. In chemistry, each atom has a valency - the ability to bond with other atoms. Our person loses even a small reserve of this valence. We cannot stand up for our rights even at some everyday level; we do not understand how to unite, how to organize, how to help ourselves. People are waiting for the guy from the housing office or the governor to come and do everything for them.
— What about the generation of very young people? Does its valence have a different nature?
— This is a lost generation. About Soviet Union They don’t know anything, for them it’s already history. They often speak quite positively about Stalin. They do not understand the meaning of the Great Terror, when people lived in fear, when millions were killed. "So what? But Stalin won the Great Patriotic War.”
This generation is very pragmatic. Yes, they want to work, they want to get paid, of course, they accept all the values of technology, but, unfortunately, they do not have humanitarian values.
— Is it, in principle, possible in Russia to change the pessimistic scenario with employment and human resources that we currently have?
— Who is the ideal worker in the 21st century economy who should be in our labor market?
Firstly, these are people of all ages. Modern market labor assumes that you are assessed only on competitiveness. Age doesn't matter if you take care of yourself, are healthy and are constantly learning. An employer in the West often chooses a mature employee because he has more experience.
This is not the case with us. In our country, people close to retirement age are the first to leave the relatively good segment of the labor market. This, by the way, is also very archaic. There must be competition regardless of age.
Secondly, you need to constantly learn. The ideal trajectory is if you changed your specialty quite radically two or three times during your life: you were a journalist, and then you became a historian, and then a designer. You need to train your own adaptability to the labor market, which is constantly changing.
The third thing is mobility. Willingness to change cities or countries for work.
And fourth - communication. You must be able to communicate. And here we have social atomization. Statement that soviet man was the most collectivist - this is a myth. You and I were not allowed to do anything; everything was decided for us. Our system still rivets the obedient, uninitiated worker...
— ...who doesn’t want to study and is ready to live on three pennies?
— Yes, who is ready to go get a fake diploma in order to present this fake diploma to the employer so that they can hire him for a fake job. In this sense, Russia is on the verge of not even a crisis, but a catastrophe. With such human capital, we cannot claim a more or less decent place in the world.
What is the unemployment rate published by Rosstat?
Fluctuations in the ruble and economic difficult situation in the country complicates the work to reduce unemployment rates. Organizations are not interested in expanding and providing new jobs during a crisis. Statistics on employment indicators are generated primarily from data from regional Employment Centers. But not every unemployed person registers at the labor exchange. Statistically, the official unemployment figures for past periods are as follows:
| Year | Percent | Number |
| 2005 | 7,12% | 5 242 000 |
| 2006 | 7,05% | 5 250 000 |
| 2007 | 6,00% | 4 519 000 |
| 2008 | 6,20% | 4 697 000 |
| 2009 | 8,30% | 6 284 000 |
| 2010 | 7,35% | 5 544 000 |
| 2011 | 6,50% | 4 922 000 |
| 2012 | 5,46% | 4 131 000 |
| 2013 | 5,50% | 4 190 000 |
| 2014 | 5,20% | 3 889 400 |
| 2015 | 5,60% | 4 263 900 |
| 2016 | 5,40% | 4 100 000 |
The problem of unemployment is most acute in the North Caucasus Federal District. Thus, in the Republic of Ingushetia in 2015, the highest unemployment rate was registered - 30.5% of the total population of the republic. During the same period, the lowest unemployment was in Moscow (1%), St. Petersburg (2.1%) and the Samara region (3.4%).
Latest news and forecast for 2017
In percentage terms, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged compared to 2016. However, it is believed that the real level significantly exceeds that declared by Rosstat. The reason is that part of the population does not want to register on exchanges or work part-time. The real picture in the country regarding employment is worse.
Independent surveys provide data that exceeds official data by 1.5 - 2 times.
In 2017, according to experts, the following industries will be most vulnerable to unemployment:
- air transportation;
- banking;
- construction;
- trade;
- hotel and tourism business;
- automotive industry.
There is a high risk of staff reductions in companies importing foreign-made goods. It will not be easy for those who are “tied” to the ruble/currency exchange rate. Optimistic forecasts regarding employment in industries:
- agriculture;
- food and chemical industry;
- computer and information Technology;
- tourism within Russia;
- transport links throughout the country.
In these areas of the economy, new jobs are expected to open and wages will rise. But there are no guarantees that the experts’ forecasts will come true.
Unemployment benefits
When a Russian citizen registers at the labor exchange, he is assigned the status of unemployed and is paid benefits. Benefits are accrued from the first day of application, despite the fact that the decision on assigning status is made after 11 days. The exception is citizens who have the right to maintain average earnings for the period of employment (2 months). These include persons dismissed due to staff reduction or liquidation of the organization.
The duration of the benefit payment is the entire period from the moment of registration on the exchange until the day the citizen was employed. But there are limits. Thus, a total of 2 benefit payment periods are allowed. The first lasts no more than 12 months during the 18 months of registration, the second - another 12 months during the 36 months of being in unemployed status. In total, a citizen can receive benefits for a maximum of 2 years, while the total billing period should not exceed 36 months.
To receive benefits, it is important to comply with the regulations and requirements of the Employment Center, including regular visits for re-registration, but not more than 2 times a month. In case of gross violations, the benefit may be canceled, for example, if an unemployed person fails to show up for more than a month. For minor violations, sanctions may be applied to citizens - suspension of payments for up to 3 months.
How much do they pay? What is the maximum benefit
The amount of benefits for unemployed citizens depends on the person’s income level for the previous period – 3 months. It is important that there is work activity for the 23 months preceding dismissal. Only full-time employment is taken into account. When working at ½ rate, specialists recalculate. In the first period (year) payments are as follows:
- 1 – 3 month – 75%;
- 4 – 7 months – 60%;
- 8 – 12 months – 45%.
For the second period, the benefit will be equal to 1 minimum wage, taking into account the regional coefficient. The minimum wage in the Russian Federation today is 7,500 rubles.
A minimum and maximum benefit amount has been established. An unemployed person can receive a maximum of 4,900 rubles, and a minimum of 850 rubles.
The situation in Moscow
The picture of the unemployment rate in Moscow is considered the most favorable. The extensive labor market plays a significant role. The capital requires a large number labor resource. Negative factors include a downward trend in wages due to high competition in the labor market. Moscow has programs to support young professionals. Provides for the payment of an additional allowance (850 rubles) to the total, compensation for expenses on travel in public transport, payment sick leave.