Brief forecasts for the future development of humanity. The main factors of the unity of modern humanity. Weakening of the immune system

Imagination allows us to “see” a plausible model of a given situation without the risk associated with its real implementation. Logical reasoning makes it possible to predict the inevitable consequences of certain actions in a variety of situations, and therefore gives useful information about future events. Induction allows you to establish the relationship between cause and effect, and is a fundamental concept for building a forecast of future events.
Despite the availability of these cognitive tools useful for understanding the future, the probabilistic nature of many natural and social processes has made the task of predicting the future a challenging but desirable goal for many people and cultures over the centuries.
People have always strived to see images of the future. Therefore, prophets and predictors have always had enormous social significance. In order to predict the future, esoteric teachings, astrology, palmistry, and superstitions arose. The development of much of physics is also easily explained as an attempt to make objective predictions about future events. Science fiction arose as a means of ultra-long-range forecasting with the help of artistic imagination.

However, the modern speed of scientifically technical progress has reached such a level that fundamental changes occur many times throughout the life of one generation, therefore, the vision of the future is built in a completely different light, and, consequently, the task of forecasting paths further development. Until now, people lived a traditional life, and in that constant, unchanging world, the problem of planning was a normal, correct task. It was raised and, with some degree of probability, solved. Now we find ourselves in an area where the very formulation of the problem of long-term development forecast is incorrect, the horizon for any reliable forecasting is obviously narrowing. However, it is precisely this unpredictability that makes somewhat reliable predictions especially in demand, so it is in this new situation that even minimally correct forecasting becomes critically relevant.

Projected futures include:

Pessimistic pictures of the future (ecological disaster, third world war, nanotechnological disaster), and

A utopian future in which the poorest people live in conditions that today would be considered rich and comfortable, and even the transformation of humanity into a post-human form of life.

Alvin Toffler warns of new difficulties, social conflicts and global problems ah, which humanity will face at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries in connection with the transition of civilization into the super-industrial (post-industrial) phase.
The accelerating pace of change has entered deeply into our personal lives, forced us into new roles and exposed us to new dangers. All this can be described by the term “futuroshock”. Futuroshock, or future shock, is the overwhelming confusion caused by the premature arrival of the future.

Examples of unfulfilled forecasts
Russian writer and scientist Kirill Eskov wrote about unfulfilled social forecasts in his essay “Our Answer to Fukuyama”:
D.I. Mendeleev considered the most difficult technical problem of the twentieth century to be the disposal of huge amounts of manure (after all, the number of horses, of course, will continue to grow at the same rate);
A. Einstein said ten years before Hiroshima that the practical use of atomic energy would come within a hundred years - not earlier;
Bernard Shaw saw a political map future Europe like this: “France and Germany? These are outdated geographical names... By Germany you obviously mean a number of Soviet or almost Soviet republics, located between the Ural ridge and the North Sea."

Optimistic future scenarios
Many famous Marxists, as part of their vision of the development of civilization, have repeatedly postulated the onset of communism as an inevitable social future.
Science fiction has developed an image of the future in which there is an interstellar human civilization, sometimes included in more complex system civilizations of other intelligent races.
The Star Trek universe depicts a humanistic and optimistic future. An interplanetary Federation has been created in it, professing the principles of tolerance and non-interference. True, in the Star Trek Universe, there are endless space wars between earthlings and the Borg, Cardassians, etc. In David Weber’s Universe, there are continuous wars between the descendants of earthlings among themselves.

Technological singularity
“Within the next thirty years we will have the technical ability to create superhuman intelligence. Soon after this the human age will be completed].
Possible ways to develop superhuman intelligence:
Development of Artificial Intelligence,
Increase in human biological capabilities,
Human-computer systems.
Technological singularity is the proposed point in the future when the evolution of the human mind, as a result of the development of nanotechnology, biotechnology and artificial intelligence, will accelerate to such an extent that further changes will lead to the emergence of a mind with much more high level speed and new quality of thinking.
According to some authors who adhere to this theory, the technological singularity may occur around 2030. However, its onset does not mean the end of history; rather, on the contrary, the Prehistory of mankind will end, and the beginning of its real History will be laid.
There is a hypothesis that there will not be a clearly defined singularity point with an acute crisis. Development is following an S-shaped curve, and the slowdown will begin in the near future. And the “singularity” point is the point on the development graph at which its speed is maximum (the middle of the S-shaped curve). For S-curve development, see also:

The emergence of artificial intelligence
Artificial intelligence will either be created by people or spontaneously arise in the network (emergent evolution). Artificial intelligence of the future will have the following advantages over human intelligence:

1. the speed of signal propagation between neurons is 100 m/s, and between microcircuits is 300,000 km/s (the speed of light), while the response time of human brain neurons is approximately a billion times less compared to silicon elements (today) and this gap continues to grow;
2. the number of neurons in the human brain is ~ 86 billion, for AI there are practically no restrictions;
3. the life of the AI ​​is unlimited, in particular, for example, due to the possible rewriting of consciousness - the AI ​​program from one electronic environment to another;
4. will not affect the management of civilization " human factor"(every person always has shortcomings, as well as, possibly, a lack of understanding of development priorities);
5. direct “implantation” of AI into electronic computer networks that are increasingly intertwining the planet (that is, instant simultaneous processing and management of billions of channels).
In recent decades, a new applied area of ​​AI has been developing in the world, specializing in artificial neural networks, which is already providing application of the results in real applications. Neural networks have proven to be very effective for predicting time sequences (such as exchange rates or stock quotes)], for analyzing and assessing risks, and predicting electricity consumption in urban housing areas
In addition to investment tasks, artificial neural networks have begun to be widely used in medical diagnostics. Intensive research and application of neurocomputer technology in the creation of military equipment is underway.
Once trained, the neural network becomes a model that can be applied to new data to make predictions.
Conquest of space

See the article - “Space exploration - forecasts and reality”

Pessimistic future scenarios
Theories of the death of Western civilization do not necessarily include a pessimistic scenario for the future, as they may assume the triumph of other civilizations and cultures.
In connection with the development of nanotechnology, the “gray goo” scenario has recently gained popularity in the press, according to which self-replicating nanorobots that have gotten out of control will absorb the entire biomass of the Earth. However, such a scenario is unlikely if the control source is located close to these robots, meaning appropriate precautions are taken.
According to the pessimistic scenario of the energy crisis, there will simply not be enough energy to support our high-tech civilization, and the world will return to its pre-industrial state.

The biblical revelation of the future represents the onset of the Apocalypse, which includes the birth of the Antichrist, the second coming of Jesus Christ, the end of the world and the Last Judgment.

Scientific predictions:

Future of the Universe
Since our Universe is expanding, big changes should be expected in the Universe in the distant future. There is no clearly established unified theory of the future of the Universe. There are just many different theories.
Big gap. This scenario involves the Universe being torn apart due to its acceleration.
Big compression. This scenario involves the compression of the Universe into a singularity. Extremely unlikely due to observations of the accelerated expansion of the universe.

Man of the future
With the right attitude toward ethical issues and social needs, significant improvements in human ability, social effectiveness, and quality of life can be expected. A higher phase of the evolution of intelligence is ahead. Technological progress leads to the fact that cyborgs, intelligent computers, will soon appear.

Transhumanism
Transhumanism is a philosophical movement based on the assumption that man is not the last link in evolution, and therefore can improve indefinitely.
Transhumanism is a rational and cultural movement that claims that it is possible and necessary to eliminate aging and death, and significantly increase the mental and physical capabilities of humans.
It is the study of the achievements, prospects, and potential dangers of using science, technology, creativity, and other ways to overcome the fundamental limits of human performance.
The goal of cryonics, for example, is to transfer recently deceased or terminal (doomed to death) patients to a point in the future when repair technologies for cells and tissues become available and, accordingly, it will be possible to restore all body functions. This technology will most likely be nanotechnology and, in particular, molecular nanorobots developed within its framework.
Based on Wikipedia materials.
As we can see, there are forecasts of multidirectional nature. It is in our power and in our interests to make sure that optimistic forecasts come true. Much can be done for this here and now. The “Russian Space” project is part of this work – of a universal scale and volume.
The next series of articles will be devoted to the future of the Earth - Preterraforming: “Cities of the future - “Project Venus”, “Project “Hyperlop” - transport of the future”, “Cities in the ocean - project “Freedomship”, “Seventh Heaven - the floating city of Richard Buckminster Fuller”.
Then a series of articles about new methods of delivering cargo into orbit: “Yuri Artsutanov’s Space Elevator”, “Skyhawk-Skyhook”, “Tsiolkovsky Orbital Tower and the Obayashi Project”, “The Earth Belt - Arthur Clarke Project”
Then a series about projects for transforming planets Solar System– “Terraforming - transformation of planets.”: “Moon”, “Mars”, “Mercury” “Venus”

And for dessert - the article: "Scale; Kardashev" - about a method for measuring the technological development of civilization, based on the amount of energy that a civilization can use for its needs. It was proposed by Soviet radio astronomer Nikolai Kardashev in his work “Transmission of Information by Extraterrestrial Civilizations,” published in the Astronomical Journal in 1964.

The scale defines three categories, respectively called types I, II, and III: a type I civilization uses all available resources available on its home planet; Type II civilization - harnesses all the energy of its star; Type III - of its galaxy.
Let us note how high was the optimism and focus on the future of Russian scientists - Tsiolkovsky, Artsutanov, Shklovsky, Kardashev and many others, who unconditionally believed in the limitless possibilities of the human mind. And how low this enthusiasm has fallen today - from conquering the stars to a trough of mixed feed, seasoned with cheap, stupefying swill. This is normal - the rollback cycle is ending and soon there will be a new impulse and breakthrough - of an already united humanity - examples of the Spice-Ex and Tesla Projects of Elon Musk, the Space Elevator Project of the Japanese company Obayashi, several NASA projects, the Russian lunar station inspire hope and optimism. As well as the future of my project "Russian Space" - a network of parks for children's educational attractions for our future Russian cosmonauts!!!

The future can be considered depending on the periods taken as the basis of the study. If we mean the concept of “foreseeable future,” then this is the prospect of the next two to three decades, which are included in the range of so-called modern long-term forecasts. Beyond this time frame, the area of ​​ultra-long-term forecasts extends.

The formation of a single world civilization is impossible without scientific foresight, which contributes to:

  • a) creating conditions for the progress of society;
  • b) social renewal of society;
  • c) overcoming the crisis of civilization.

The relevance and necessity of scientific prediction of the development of society stems from the need for an objective analysis of the mechanisms of formation and implementation of interests, both of all humanity and of various countries, groups and individuals, assessment of new life processes for the future, their selection and stimulation.

It should be noted that forecasting is divided by content into scientific, technical and socio-demographic and solves the following problems:

  • 1) notice the emergence of new phenomena in time;
  • 2) understand their true essence;
  • 3) correctly assess their significance for the future;
  • 4) determine whether emerging phenomena are progressive or regressive;
  • 5) support progressive processes by creating appropriate conditions.

According to the technological procedure, forecasting includes the following stages:

  • 1) definition of the object of forecasting and formulation of the problem;
  • 2) determination of goals, objectives and time for approval of the predicted phenomenon;
  • 3) putting forward working hypotheses and forecasting methods;
  • 4) determination of a system of indicators reflecting the nature of the predicted phenomenon.

According to the method, three types of forecasting are distinguished: extrapolation, modeling, and examination.

Extrapolation- continuation into the future of trends and patterns that are quite well known in the past and present. It has always been believed that lessons for the future can be learned from the past, since the evolution of inanimate, living and social matter is based on well-defined rhythmic processes.

Modeling- representation of the object under study in a simplified, schematic form, convenient for obtaining conclusions of a prognostic nature.

Expertise- forecasting based on an assessment, which is based on an objective statement of the prospects of the corresponding phenomenon.

All three of these methods seem to complement each other. Any extrapolation is to a certain extent a model and an estimate, any predictive model is an estimate plus extrapolation, and any predictive assessment involves extrapolation and mental modeling. In each of these types of forecasting, methods of analogy, induction and deduction, various statistical, economic, sociological and other methods of understanding phenomena can be used.

It is important that the degree of reliability of forecasts depends not only on the methods used, but also on the accuracy and completeness of the initial empirical information, the truth of the theory and laws on which the forecast is based. In this regard, there is a distinction accurate And probabilistic forecasts. In the study of complex phenomena, one has to resort to probabilistic-statistical forecasts when the predicted object is exposed to numerous factors that cannot be fully taken into account (quantum mechanics, economics, politics, psychology, etc.).

An example of the result of forecasting complex phenomena is an attempt to foresee the direction of development of civilization as a whole. Here, according to researchers, a process of intellectual redistribution is approaching. The first redistribution is of territories (the First World War), the second redistribution is of capital (the Second World War), the third is of technology (a process occurring today, including the information psychological revolution, the existence of nuclear missiles, biological, chemical and other types of weapons) .

Moiseev N.N. in his concept of scientific forecasting, he speaks of the need for a third turn in the history of mankind, which is characterized by the search for a new model of relationships between people and nature and among themselves. The first turn in history, according to N.N. Moiseev - the introduction of a system of taboos in the Paleolithic, which switched man from biological to social development. The second turn is the expansion of the ecological niche in the Neolithic, when man switched to a productive economy.

Another type of forecasting is Utopia, which, in contrast to scientific foresight, which tries to accurately and reasonably imagine the development of natural and social processes in the future, represents unrealistic plans for social transformations, describes fictional countries, social situations that are examples social order. Nevertheless, utopia is capable of recording as yet imperceptible phenomena in the present and forming clear images of the future. Therefore, we can say that utopia is a social ideal, an escape from negative reality (Plato, T. More).

What all utopias have in common is that they are built on the basis critical analysis modern world, society and attempts to introduce alternatives. Utopias to some extent introduce the future, become a guide for thinking, and create additional models of development. In the twentieth century, such a kind of utopia appears as dystopia, the purpose of which is to depict negative social guidelines in a deliberately frightening or caricatured form, suggesting their implementation in life.

The term coined to denote the field of knowledge concerned with forecasting is “ futurology" In the early 60s, futurology became widespread in the West in the sense of “history of the future”, “science of the future”. In this direction, the negative consequences of scientific and technological progress are substantiated.

The organizational embodiment of this direction was the so-called Club of Rome, which included prominent Western scientists (and since the 90s, Russian scientists), politicians, and businessmen.

The reports of the Club of Rome noted that at the turn of the second and third millennia, humanity came face to face with the most acute global problems of our time, threatening the very existence of civilization. At the initiative of scientists from the Club of Rome, a “global modeling” of the prospects for human development was launched.

The participants in these studies themselves were divided into two camps - optimists and pessimists. Pessimists- F. Fukuyama (the concept of the end of history), A. Peccei (the work “One Hundred Pages for the Future”), 3. Brzezinski (the concept of global disorder), the ideas of J. Forrester, D. Meadows speak of an impending catastrophe, optimists- S. Huntington (the concept of the clash of civilizations), A. Toffler (“Futuroshock”, etc.), M. Misarovich substantiate the possibility of avoiding the apocalypse through the scientific management of natural and social processes.

The concern of the world community with the problem of survival and creating a decent life has actualized the problem of the essence of social progress, its characteristics and types. There is no particular disagreement on the issue of types of social progress; the classification of types corresponds to the main structural elements of society. In this regard, a distinction is made between economic, technical, social (political, legal, scientific, moral) progress, as well as progress in the field of art and religion.

Considering the signs of social progress, it should be noted that there are many points of view on this issue, since this situation is largely explained by the complexity of society, its multi-level nature and branched system of relationships.

IN Russian literature The indicator of the state and level of development of the productive forces was put forward as the main sign of social progress. And although the criterion of uniform and fair distribution was subsequently added to this indicator finished product However, they all worked in the economic sphere.

S.E. Krapivensky, while researching integrative indicators, proposed as such an indicator the level of humanization of society, that is, the position of the individual in it, the degree of her economic, political and social liberation, the level of satisfaction of her material and spiritual needs, the state of her psychophysical and social health. And finally, as the most synthetic, an indicator of average life expectancy.

Agreeing with the importance of these indicators of social progress, it should be said about the need to look for signs of social progress. These are: an indicator characterizing the rate of emergence of innovations in each of the spheres (elements) of the structure of society: economic, political, legal, etc. The criterion for the sufficiency or insufficiency of innovation rates is life itself, that is, the effectiveness of the technical, economic, political, scientific and other processes.

It should be noted that in each sphere of society, fairly accurate tools have been accumulated for assessing the quantity and quality of innovations that take place here.

The next indicator of social progress characterizes the degree of lag from the moment of the emergence of an innovation (a new idea or its materialization) to its expanded reproduction. The lower this indicator, the more progressive the society. This lag exists in all spheres of society, but in developed countries it is reduced to an optimal minimum and work in this direction continues.

The third indicator characterizes the always existing interval between innovations taking place in different spheres of society (economic, political, legal, etc.), that is, one or more spheres always occupy a leading position, stimulating the development of others. Consequently, the society is more progressive where this interval is smaller, where there is a progressive development of all spheres of society.

And finally, an important indicator of the progressiveness of a society is its ability to change regressive phenomena into progressive ones. In any society, dysfunctional phenomena and processes take place, but the strength of society is precisely manifested in the ability to quickly notice such a phenomenon, diagnose its causes, outline and implement measures to eliminate this negative phenomenon.

Thus, social progress is not a straight line going upward, it is a complex zigzag process in which progress and regression, being qualitatively multidirectional processes, exist and are realized simultaneously, mutually determine and mutually presuppose each other.

A striking example of such regressive phenomena are the so-called global problems of our time.

Scientists are still arguing about how long ago Homo sapiens appeared on Earth. The following is known for sure: about 40 thousand years ago, our distant ancestors already lived on all continents. Despite the huge cultural difference, in a physiological and anatomical sense they were very similar to modern people. Scientists believe that Homo sapiens continues to evolve today. At the same time, his body is influenced not only by natural factors (especially those that cause genetic mutations), but also by sociocultural parameters.

Let's talk about what changes in humans in the coming millennia researchers consider the most likely.

Source: depositphotos.com

Increase in height

According to anthropologists, the height of primitive man did not exceed 160 cm. Now such people are considered short. The average height of a Russian these days is 175-178 cm, and even among the fair sex, heights above 170 cm are quite common. However, this parameter strongly depends on both ethnic characteristics and individual heredity. In addition, scientists have noticed that in developed countries, where high-calorie foods are available to everyone, the average height of representatives of each successive generation increases, while in regions where there is still a shortage of food, this does not happen. Considering that the international community is making serious efforts to combat hunger, it can be assumed that people will gradually grow up in the future.

Darkening of hair and eyes

Scientific and technological progress has made people mobile. Now people move freely around the world, change their places of residence and assimilate. This is how the transfer and infusion of new genetic material occurs into ethnic groups that until recently lived separately and retained a specific appearance. In cases where the specificity is due to recessive genes, it disappears. Already today there is a decrease in the number of people with blond hair and eyes. Scientists believe that this process will continue, and in the future blue-eyed blondes will become a real rarity.

Increasing number of obese people

The reason for the increase in the number of overweight people is not so much the availability of high-calorie foods, but a shift in the eating habits of many residents of developed countries towards fast food. This food is convenient and doesn't require cooking. In addition, manufacturers introduce additives into its composition that cause addiction and refusal of regular homemade food. The sad results of the fast food craze have been noticeable for a long time. According to statistics, over the past 20 years the number of Europeans suffering from obesity has doubled. Unfortunately, without a conscious transition to a healthy diet, this process will continue.

Changes in teeth and jawbones

The main factor behind changes in appearance is a change in a person’s diet. The share of foods consumed in unprocessed form is steadily decreasing. Food manufacturers, trying to make it as attractive as possible, often take the route of eliminating solid components. Consumption of food that practically does not require grinding leads to the fact that the human chewing apparatus does not experience the loads programmed by nature and gradually becomes unnecessary. In practice, this leads to weakening of the jaw bones, masticatory muscles and dental tissues. Many people today are born without wisdom teeth. According to scientists, there is a possibility that a person’s teeth will become smaller over time, and the weakening of the jaw apparatus will lead to changes in the skull, which will greatly affect the appearance of our distant descendants.

Reduction in muscle volume

Daily routine modern man, as a rule, do not require significant muscle effort, and not everyone wants to play sports. Thus, the strength of muscles and skeletal bones becomes a redundant trait from an evolutionary point of view. There are hypotheses that present the person of the future as a physically weak creature with a huge brain, but not even able to move independently. Most likely, this is an exaggeration, but the fact that we are physically much weaker than our primitive ancestors can be considered an established fact.

Weakened immune system

The progress of medicine has helped humanity get rid of many deadly diseases and contributed to an increase in life expectancy. Unfortunately, many scientific discoveries also had negative consequences. In particular, the widespread use of antibiotics has caused a weakening of natural human immunity. Our immune system is already accustomed to having its functions taken over by medicines, household chemicals and perfumes and cosmetics. A number of scientists believe that in the future protective forces people will weaken, making him more and more dependent on the achievements of civilization.

Blurring gender differences

Some researchers talk about the development of a post-gender society in the future. This is what they call a community of people whose gender differences are largely erased. Some elements of such changes can already be observed today. Many residents of developed countries exhibit traits and habits that are unusual for their gender (overly feminine men and overly masculine women appear). The number of same-sex families is growing, as is the number of people seeking to use reproductive technologies that do not require the participation of a permanent partner of the opposite sex. It is hardly worth counting on the fact that over time natural reproduction will completely disappear, but the tendency to erase gender differences should not be completely discounted.

Rising number of people suffering from depression

According to statistics, about a third of Americans today suffer from depression. Modern man almost every day finds himself in stressful situations that lead to a deterioration in his physical and mental health. Scientists believe that the situation will worsen over time, and consider the tendency to depression to be one of the factors that can lead humanity to the brink of extinction.

Researchers' forecasts look disappointing. It turns out that our descendants are doomed to be weak, sick, depressed and overly dependent on the achievements of civilization. In some ways this is true, but each of us can still make a difference. It is necessary to change one’s own existence: to give preference healthy eating, go in for sports, give up unjustified use medications, develop a positive outlook on the world. Only in this way will we set a good example for our children that will help them live correctly, interestingly and effectively. Ultimately, this can have a positive impact on the health and appearance of future generations.

Video from YouTube on the topic of the article:

The great British physicist Stephen Hawking warns humanity of imminent and almost inevitable death. In the new documentary Stephen Hawking: New Earth Expedition, he lists all the major threats that could destroy humanity: overpopulation, asteroids, epidemics, and so on. In a separate line, the scientist highlights the danger of nuclear war, artificial intelligence and genetically modified viruses. He believes that in a hundred years the number of threats to our civilization will increase so much that the death of humanity will no longer seem fantastic to anyone.

Somewhat earlier, Hawking stated that humanity has about a thousand years to avoid destruction by finding a habitable world and colonizing it. Now these periods have decreased tenfold, so it does not seem possible to find and colonize another world (consider it).

The good news came from Ray Kurzweil, an American inventor and futurist, and part-time technical director of Google. He put together all the main forecasts he had given over the past two decades and specified the time frame for their implementation down to a year. There are about 30 of these forecasts, and you can get acquainted with them, for example,.

Mr. Kurzweil prophesies a paradise for humanity, and an almost immediate one. True, in this barrel of heaven lies an almost invisible spoon of hell. We don’t really understand what the futurist meant by “the spread of technological singularity throughout the entire Universe” (what about the speed of light, which, according to Einstein?), but this technological singularity itself, translated into a generally understandable language, means a state of technological progress, in which it will become so fast and complex that it will be beyond our understanding. And this is more bad than good.

Commenting on the forecasts for TD, Vladimir Lipunov, a professor at the Faculty of Physics at Moscow State University, responded favorably to Kurzweil’s predictions, but noted that even if they all come true within the specified time frame, this will not save our civilization. Her death, according to Lipunov, will inevitably dawn in exactly a hundred, or at most a few hundred, years. The astrophysicist comes to this conclusion through simple calculations based on the fact that almost half a century of searching for traces that could have been left by alien civilizations has not yielded any results.

“Scientists have been thinking about this for a long time,” says Vladimir Lipunov. ― Back in 1950, Enrico Fermi asked the question of what was later called the Great Silence of the Universe: “If in our galaxy there are many extraterrestrial civilizations, then why do we still not see such traces of them as spaceships or probes? In the late 80s, I calculated the average lifespan of any technological civilization during the period when its technology begins to develop exponentially. If our planet is not unique, it should be assumed that there must be many intelligent, and most importantly, technologically advanced civilizations. They can come into contact with each other if the time of their existence and the distance between them allow such contact. Over billions of years, you can, if not master, then at least study the entire galaxy, leaving your traces everywhere, and, of course, coming into contact with other civilizations. And if there is no contact, then it means that the life of such a civilization is short and, according to my calculations, averages about a hundred or several hundred years. Subsequently, colleagues from Russia and the USA independently came to the same results, and this coincides very well with the predictions of Stephen Hawking.

The person writing these lines, due to his nature, treats both forecasts with equal skepticism. In his opinion, Kurzweil's promises are for the most part quite feasible, but the timing of their implementation is highly questionable - especially considering the resistance that some of these innovations will face.

You can also find objections to the imminent death of humanity - if only because you really don’t want to meet it, and it’s more pleasant to believe the opposite according to the principle “maybe it will blow by.” However, some restrictions will still have to be imposed on this “maybe”.

Take, for example, artificial intelligence: one of the leading experts on it, British professor Kevin Warwick, has no doubt that soon the artificial brain will surpass the human one. But he immediately makes a reservation: the main thing, in his opinion, is not to lose control of the new mind, otherwise your faithful assistant will turn into the brainchild of Frankenstein, and his literary analogue will seem like Cheburashka. However, the professor regrets, it will be difficult to do this while there are wars in the world and the warring parties want to use advanced weapons. In such an environment, Warwick says, a rapid race of intellects is inevitable, and there will be no time for control. If we consider Kurzweil’s predictions about cyborg people, chips embedded in the brain, nanorobots, and so on, then a similar danger lurks in terrorists - they may well use these “miracles” for their own purposes.

Therefore, before achieving the goals outlined by the futurologist, humanity will have to completely get rid of both wars and terrorism. You can try to do this on Earth, or you can choose an easier path and start looking for a planet suitable for life, where there are no wars or terrorists. True, from a certain point of view, this is not a guarantee: as one book says, “when [people] say: “peace and security,” then destruction will suddenly befall them.”

improvement of means and methods of warfare. But war is a product of politics and ideology, therefore the reasons for the strengthening of the military complex and the threat of thermonuclear war should be seen not in science or technical achievements, but in the imperfection of society itself, oriented towards violence.

Thus, the main aspects of this problem, as well as the environmental one (discussed in the previous question), convince and allow us to conclude that the global problems of our time are not purely technical, but social in nature. They include a whole range of socio-economic, political, ideological, etc. reasons and aspects. Therefore, the solution to global problems must fundamentally go through the unity of the technical, scientific and social with the dominance of the latter and with an orientation towards humanistic values.

Literature

2. Rostov-on-Don, 2003. – Ch. 12, paragraph 3.

Security questions

1. Name the main features of post-industrial society.

2. Why is modern society also called information society?

3. Expand the concept of technocracy. What is its negative role for modern man?

4. What is the reason for the emergence of technical alarmism?

5. On what basis does cultural criticism build its reasoning?

6. What problems of modern man are caused by the rapid development of science and technology?

8. What problems of our time are called “global”? What are the reasons for their occurrence?

9. Name the current major global problems.

Section 10. FUTURE OF HUMANITY: FORECASTS AND PROSPECTS

Topic 10.1. POSSIBILITIES FOR PRESENTING THE FUTURE

When building prospects for the development of man and humanity, one should take into account the complexity of this phenomenon itself: spirituality, social essence and natural-biological existence. The task is difficult because the human world itself is complex and largely unpredictable, built on the active intervention of the ideal in the course of development. Nevertheless social thought due to his creative ability, he inevitably moves to forecasts of the future, relying on the past and present. But if early concepts, without a developed scientific methodology of knowledge, were based on dreams and fantasies, then the modern vision of the future seeks to use the entire arsenal of scientific achievements, primarily in the field of humanities. However, when using scientific data, we should not forget that philosophical knowledge is different from scientific knowledge, therefore its forecasts should be based on the involvement of man as a living active force in current events in the world. Therefore, philosophy, taking into account the subjective factor of development, moves away from the principle of unambiguity and inevitability of the history of man and society. But, having a predictive function, it makes its own predictions about the future. (Although some philosophers deny the possibility of foresight.)

In justifying the possibility of predicting the future, the following aspects are highlighted: ontological, epistemological, logical, neurophysiological, social.

Ontological aspect lies in the fact that prediction is possible of the very essence of existence - its objective laws, cause-and-effect relationships. Based on dialectics, the development mechanism remains unchanged before each qualitative leap, and therefore the future can be traced.

Epistemological aspect is based on the fact that knowledge of the world is possible, constantly expanding and deepening, therefore forecasting as a special knowledge is also possible.

Logical aspect emphasizes the constancy of the laws of logic, which help organize human thinking and, accordingly, cognition.

Neurophysiological aspect is based on the ability of consciousness and the brain to proactively reflect reality.

Social aspect lies in the fact that humanity strives, based on its own experience of development, to model the future.

Literature

1. Philosophy / Ed. T.I. Kokhanovskaya. – Rostov-on-Don, 2003. – Ch. 12, paragraph 1.

Topic 10.2. NEW WAYS OF KNOWING HUMAN AND FUTURE PROSPECTS

Success modern science and techniques in the study of the biological nature of man, the identification of his natural biological uniqueness (evolution, types of nervous activity, laws of biological regulation and life rhythm, genetic structure, etc.) formulated a special direction in philosophical prognostication concerning individual biologicalhuman development prospects. The issues under consideration concern the extension of a person’s individual life, the possibility of natural evolutionary or artificial changes in his biological nature, etc.

One of the ways to make this prediction is to use the discoveries of genetics, which studies the interaction of heredity and environment. The practical use of artificial genes, which is already used in medicine, allows us to expand the adaptive capabilities of a person, especially those who are endowed with hereditary diseases. Human Genetics - Insights

â the innermost secrets of his biological existence, as a result of which a greater liberation of man from nature can be achieved, since in this case he becomes literally the creator of himself. Developed on the basis of genetics, “genetic engineering” and “eugenics” (from the Greek eugenes - good kind) set as their task the improvement of the human race. Intensive study of existing genetic variability, obtaining, over time, deeper knowledge regarding the gene pool and genetic volume of populations will make it possible to create plans for controlling the biological structure of man, adapting him to a specific environment.

Undoubtedly, the research of genetics is fruitful, but we should not forget that philosophy comes from the versatility of man. Its humanistic meaning lies primarily in the representation of man as a part of not only the natural world, but also the social and spiritual one. Man's future will be greatly empowered by harnessing the variability of the gene pool, but will he accept responsibility for his conscious ability to control his own genetic destiny? If a person begins to control his own evolution, he must clearly understand the specific values ​​\u200b\u200bto the realization of which his efforts will be applied. Is a person capable of this? And in whose hands will this regulation be? From a philosophical point of view, the question is also to what extent will a person socially and spiritually retain identity with himself? To what extent will the principle of humanism correspond to its content if the person himself becomes a “guinea pig”?

Another focus of future concepts places emphasis on social and spiritual forces of man. Based on the values ​​of technogenic civilization, the authors see “humanized” technology as the prospects for society. In their opinion, technology and new technologies must take into account man and the nature around him. The socio-political progress of the future will be determined by the extent to which it will be possible to process the achievements of scientific and technological progress in social terms. The path forward is not a return to old ideas, but the development of newly thought-out technologies. New technologies, in their opinion, require an “engineer of the future” who

â process vocational training least of all should be “pumped up” with technical knowledge. Progress, undoubtedly, will depend not least on the fact that the creative creative activity of an engineer is determined by thinking within the framework of entire systems, taking into account non-technical conditions and connections, which in itself means the subordination of technology to human goals. This process can be understood as a change of priorities: it is not technology that dominates man, but man uses it for the comprehensive development of his essential powers.

A large place in prognostic concepts is occupied by ideas of evolutionism and education of a new ecological consciousness of human involvement in cosmic evolution. At one time, V.I. Vernadsky, Teilhard de Chardin and their modern followers built their reasoning on the basis of the unity of man and nature through man (from man to nature), counting on his increased intellectual potential. The essence of their views is that as a result of the evolutionary process, a new geological force arises - the scientific thought of social humanity. Under the influence of scientific thought and human labor, the biosphere transforms into a new state - the noosphere. As a result of this, the connection “universe - nature - man” receives a new quality, where a person with his mind becomes the center of this connection. Therefore, at a certain stage of development of civilization, humanity will have to take responsibility for its further evolution in order to survive. The evolution of the biosphere is becoming directional. Today we use the term for this

"coevolution" of man and the biosphere. As a uniqueness and at the same time a development factor modern society They put forward the process of informatization, which contributes to the evolutionary processes of unity of people with nature, space and each other.

Literature

1. Philosophy / Ed. A.F. Zotova et al. - M., 2003. - Section. 5, ch. 7, paragraph 5.

2. Philosophy / Ed. T.I. Kokhanovskaya. – Rostov-on-Don, 2003. – Ch. 12, paragraph 2.

Security questions

1. What is the specificity of philosophical foresight as opposed to scientific foresight?

2. What are the main philosophical aspects of the ability to predict the future that should be noted?

3. Why can’t focusing only on biological changes in a person fully reveal the prospects for his development?

4. What is the meaning of the idea of ​​“humanized technology”?

5. What are the ideas of evolutionism based on?